Amid a broad market cooldown, both gold and Bitcoin experienced notable declines last week. U.S. Treasury yields eased lower, but the movement appeared more technical than a sign of panic driven flight to safety. Similarly, the U.S. dollar strengthened across the board yet this seemed to reflect tactical demand rather than a structural shift. While the greenback continues to benefit from the relative strength of the American economy, long term signals remain mixed. In the background, discussions around de dollarization are gaining ground, placing the global role of the dollar increasingly under scrutiny.
Oil in the Spotlight: High Tension, but Still Contained
Crude oil has emerged as the main market driver. Since the beginning of the month, WTI prices have jumped more than 23%, marking the strongest monthly gain since November 2020. Prices are once again nearing the critical resistance zone between $78 and $80 per barrel levels that previously held firm after both the October 1st and June 13th Iranian strikes.
Despite heightened geopolitical tensions, Iran has maintained its oil exports, reaching 2.2 million barrels per day the highest level in five weeks. However, the real catalyst came from the U.S., not only due to its involvement in the conflict but also from domestic data: the latest inventory report revealed the largest weekly drawdown in over a year. While speculation is mounting, markets remain grounded by the knowledge that OPEC is still producing below capacity. This means any potential supply disruptions from Iran would likely be manageable. All eyes are now on the Strait of Hormuz, where tensions are elevated, but not yet explosive.
Week of June 23: Key Events in Focus Across Markets
This week opens under the sign of heightened volatility. With the Middle East conflict casting shadows across equities and commodities, investors will closely monitor three major events: Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress, U.S. core PCE inflation data, and June flash PMIs, which will offer a timely health check on the global economic cycle.
In the U.S., Jerome Powell returns to center stage with back to back appearances before the House (Tuesday) and the Senate (Wednesday). Investors will watch closely for any shifts in the Fed’s policy outlook amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, resilient macroeconomic data, and a gradual disinflationary trend. All eyes will be on May’s core PCE inflation expected to rise just 0.1% month over month as well as on personal income and spending data, which are forecast to show moderate growth. By the end of the week, results from U.S. bank stress tests could spark sector wide movements, while the annual rebalancing of the Russell indices may trigger volatility, particularly among mid and small cap stocks.
In Europe, corporate news flow is lighter but not without relevance. On Thursday, H&M will report earnings, serving as a key barometer for the retail sector amid a challenging year for fast fashion. Recent sharp stock declines across the industry underline the pressure: ASOS ( 32% YTD), Zalando ( 18%), Fast Retailing/Uniqlo ( 14%), H&M ( 11.6%), and Inditex ( 9%), which recently disappointed markets with slower than expected sales growth. Despite stable margins, investors had anticipated a stronger recovery heading into summer. Associated British Foods parent company of Primark will also be closely watched. It remains one of the few retailers in positive territory YTD (+2.7%), but still operates in a price sensitive environment where consumer caution remains high.
Geopolitical developments will also take center stage in Europe. On Tuesday, NATO leaders will gather in The Hague amid mounting pressure to increase defense spending targets from 2% to potentially 3.5% of GDP, plus an additional 1.5% for infrastructure. The tone is expected to be intense, especially against the backdrop of domestic political instability. The European Council will follow on Thursday and Friday in Brussels, focusing on the strategic implications emerging from the NATO summit. Simultaneously, the EU Canada bilateral summit will feature an agreement on defense procurement cooperation under the “Re Arm Europe” program.
Italy: Eyes on Stellantis and Dividend Day
In Italy, Monday June 23 marks two important events. First, Antonio Filosa officially steps in as the new CEO of Stellantis. Second, it’s “Dividend Day,” with over €2.9 billion in payouts from a select group of companies an event likely to significantly influence both indices and sector performance, particularly among utilities.
Key names include Snam, Terna, and Hera, as well as industrial giants like Leonardo, Pirelli, and STMicroelectronics. Poste Italiane leads the pack with nearly €970 million in dividends, accounting for roughly one third of the total. Snam will distribute €584 million, followed by Terna at €556 million. Leonardo will pay out €300 million (€0.52 per share), while Pirelli will issue €250 million (€0.25 per share). Though smaller in absolute terms, STMicroelectronics (€80 million) and Hera (€210 million) remain strategically important players in the dividend landscape.
Asia: China and Japan in the Spotlight
In Asia, markets will monitor the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress in China, which meets from Tuesday to Friday. Focus will be on anti monopoly legislation and potential responses to U.S. tariff actions. In Japan, attention will turn to Tokyo inflation figures, retail sales, the unemployment rate, and a summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan potentially shedding light on future monetary policy directions.
